None of us predicted COVID disease, although some warnings have been issued by influential people. The name of the game in 2022 and going forward will be handled by the odds.
After the discovery of quantum physics, the probability of something happening or not taking hold of great minds, the variables we face are many, the world is complex, therefore, what we can say is: The probability of an event happening is X% , however, the exact path of this event is not possible to be identified or traced.
Think of a night watchman making his rounds at dawn along a street lit by poles spaced every 35 meters. Given the darkness of the night, we can’t specify his walk, however, every time he passes under a lamp installed on one of the poles, we’ll perfectly see the silhouette of this night watchman. Thus, knowing that he passed a lamp and walks at a certain speed and direction, we can predict the probability of when he will be passing the next lamp, however, many events may occur on this path and he may not appear in the next stage as per our predicted calculation.
This is and will be our daily life in 2022 and years ahead. Predicting what will happen in the developed world is simpler when compared to our complex Brazil. Why? Brazil is an international pariah, we have become excluded from global trends following a solo flight where our opinion on the world stage is at least doubtful, whatever the theme.
Everywhere we will continue to deal with COVID, however, the developed world is planning for another pandemic, which is far from happening in Brazil, we will continue to admit the possibility of ending this type of phenomenon by decree law, we have experience in the subject . COVID did not leave us and when it leaves its trail it will be indelible, the consequences that fill our hospitals and study centers generate stories of suffering and will mark generations. COVID opened the eyes of large corporations to global production chains, we learned that direct dependence on certain countries, whatever they may be, imposed operational limits on us and defending internal strategic sectors will be one of the trends in 2022, but not here where the CEITEC was considered economically unviable. The strategy that signals the interconnection between people, businesses, goods and transport was clear for the countries hard hit by COVID, for our leaders there was and is a negligence on the subject, in addition to disregard for those who fell in the fight against the virus. Many markets were negatively affected by the pandemic, many of them will not return to the pre-pandemic stage due to changing habits, if we pick one, the commercial real estate market will continue to undergo adjustments throughout 2022 affected by remote work.
In 2022 we will have elections for president in Brazil, we will be bombarded by “fakenews” and few candidates will expose or register their government plans. What will continue to be valid here is disinformation, depending on which group the voter decides to join, the news will be biased with readings that favor the conviction of his vote. Probably on top of legislation and parties there will be the creation of Federations that will impose discipline over the next 4 years on political parties, a novelty.
AI – Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, automation technologies for repetitive functions, renewable energy sources, better batteries and synthetic biology will gain more space out there as they are aimed at improving the quality of life, low wages here they are no longer competitive differentials, this world is buried in the past. Furthermore, how does the Brazilian worker intend to fight for better wages if there will not be abundant jobs in 2022 and those who could have crossed Christmas in the Bone of 2021?
Brazil has the Amazon, a very important factor in climate change, here we can make international headlines and if we are wise to take advantage of the various interests involved in this equation. Looking at our daily actions for a greener world can start in our homes, there is no need to wait for instructions from governments or international bodies. The climate will generate developments that we have not seen until now, financing companies turning to operations only for the market of responsible companies that do not emit greenhouse gases. And, the food shortages generated by climate change will generate climate refugees. We don’t need to chase after hurricanes and fires overseas, just look at what happened in Bahia at the end of the year.
Prices should continue their climb “towards infinity and beyond” (Buzz Lightyear), commodities should grow, although healthy eating will be increasingly on the citizens’ agenda. Fossil fuels are under constant attack, Green Hydrogen will make the front pages of newspapers. And, the coexistence with energy blackouts will be frequent. The decarbonization of the atmosphere explained in international agreements must be rigorously monitored, we know that human beings do not usually look far beyond their own navel.
Law firms walk a few steps behind technology, taking a long time to form a judgment on electronic fraud, fakenews, cryptocurrencies, etc. In this field, cryptography will fall in the interest of the general public, as we are increasingly inserted in a world of bits and bytes, assets are proven by digital signatures and any missing information can throw a lifetime of work in the trash. Cyber security will be on the agenda, whether or not we want attacks on banks, hospitals, institutions, schools, etc. will increase.
After the end of the Cold War, we appreciated the emergence of the Asian bloc, currently with the main actors Russia and China, and the weakening of American democracy. The European bloc seeks to strengthen itself through multilateral actions, who will win this race? Difficult, but it won’t end in 2022 and this war will span that decade when we will have the new global dominants. The most disadvantaged self-styled classes, such as women, blacks, small ethnic groups, LGBTQIA+ etc. they will continue their struggles with advances and setbacks, the setbacks will be due to the regime that emerges victorious in the ideological war between the USA and the Russia/China bloc. The regimes in Russia and China are more closed and little interested in the discussion on the topic of freedom. In short, inequalities will continue, if equal opportunities are achieved, they will be for after this decade.
Brazil continues to age, productive people are less and less compared to those who retire, the theme of retirement will be around like a ghost that haunts its victim, at the other end, the field of work for caregivers, caregivers and nurses should be abundant .
Large companies will continue to struggle to reinvent themselves in 2022, small and medium companies have suffered a lot in the last 2 years and thousands have gone bankrupt. Raw materials should be a strong bottleneck in 2022, increasingly scarce. The winning strategies will be on the agenda of the day, our suggestion is to form teams with creative people, creativity leads to innovation, if innovation is monetized by the end customer, it will generate profits for the company and value for the entire production chain.
Tensions between employees and bosses should increase and can only be managed under a new management/leadership perspective, here, there are a few practices being discussed in the world like the organizations in Helix, BetaCodex etc.
Education in Brazil should be remodeled, but the odds are slim. Technology that depends on programming, logic, algorithms and creativity cannot continue to receive digitally illiterate people being thrown out of schools without the slightest preparation. In one example, how is a CEO going to decide what the best information system to buy for his company if he is digitally illiterate? Low-income and poorly educated workers, on the other hand, will suffer even more from the distancing from technology, and will go into services that require their own efforts, as the formal market will expel them far from its borders. Today it is common to visit Lisbon – Portugal and the taxi driver is a Brazilian, in the US the Hispanic population grew 23% between 2010 and 2020, in addition to finances, there is an impact on these migrations ranging from changes in habits in the local population to the predominant religion .
The neoliberal model has shown its flaws, the consequences we can see in the begging on the streets and how much the planet has exhausted itself. It is necessary to look for another economic model, fairer and less destructive. There is a limit to social inequality, history has already shown us this episode when kings were beheaded.
If we still have something good, my hope is that God takes possession of our minds and guide our paths, always doing good will solve almost all our problems. Let’s not wait for new George Floyds and new Marielles to make human beings aware that chaos is avoidable.
Happy 2022.
