China, this Asian tiger that is chattering everyone has defined a plan for 2049 and is there for anyone who wants to study. The plan is reaffirmed in speeches by its greatest leader Mr. Jinping and through documents that run the internet. Undoubtedly, they want to be the global leader by 2049 overtaking the US in all fields. The Chinese economy plays an important role in this regard, however, the complexity of the products is treated with oriental care.
The central policy is to help national companies take their first steps and then let them fly into foreign markets. The Chinese know that it is necessary to reform the State and increase their forces in other markets, for this they will make foreign investments more flexible and participate firmly in intellectual property. China is increasingly entering the world capital market and will have to deal with internal problems such as interest rates, foreign exchange, human rights and the environment. However, it is essential to mention that the greater the economic complexity of a country, the greater its per capita income.
Complexity is the name of this game, in an example, forty years ago a Brazilian worker earned the equivalent of 29% of an average American, today, we are at 20%, that is, the Brazilian’s salary is 1/5 of a North American and they are not worried at all. Because? Because they know, in today’s world it is mandatory to manufacture sophisticated products that are difficult to copy.
Developed countries are producing increasingly complex products and services, considering the parameter “complexity” in 2018 (according to Harvard studies), Japan ranked 1st, the USA 11th, China 18th, Brazil 49th and Vietnam 52nd position. China and Vietnam were far behind Brazil in the 1990s. The fact that China becomes modern does not diminish the presence of the State in the economy and here our leaders do not see (or do not want to see) the strategy of these tigers. The state provides musculature for private companies to compete and then demands that they export to “neoliberals” if they delight. In addition mr. Jinping does not give up creating an unbeatable consuming middle class and having the largest and most prepared army on the planet.
Anyway, the “Chinese dream” is outlined, and “us”, what is our dream?
Do we need to have a plan? Well, our plan is:
• accelerate the pace of economic development in the country;
• mitigate the sectoral and regional economic gaps and the tensions created by social imbalances by improving living conditions; • ensure, through investment policy, productive employment opportunities for the labor force that continually flows into the labor market; • correct the tendency towards uncontrolled deficits in the balance of payments, which threaten the continuity of the economic development process, through the periodic strangulation of the capacity to import;
• Implement a financial policy comprising a policy to reduce the government cash deficit in order to progressively alleviate the resulting inflationary pressure and strengthen, by disciplining consumption and transfers from the public sector and improving the composition of expenditure, the capacity to national savings;
• Implement a tax policy designed to strengthen tax collection and fight inflation, correcting incidence distortions, stimulating savings, improving the orientation of private investments and mitigating regional and sectoral economic inequalities;
• Implement a monetary policy consistent with the objectives of progressive price stabilization, avoiding, however, the retraction of the level of productive activity and the reduction of the saving capacity of companies;
• Implement a policy ….
Ooooops, excuse me, I found out, now, I’m copying the text above the PAEG – Government Economic Action Program, written in “1964” by mr. Roberto de Oliveira Campos under the command of Marshal Castelo Branco. That dream was of past nights. What will the current dream be?
Comente